Saturday’s final Premier League match will be played at Anfield between one team who’ve lost their last four league matches and another who’ve won theirs.
Aston Villa aren’t historically prone to long winning runs but it’s Unai Emery‘s side who come into this unusual late kick-off having won 12 points from the last possible 12.
Premier League champions Liverpool are in a bad run of form in league and cup football, albeit punctuated by a big win at Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League.
Longer term, the form book is very much in their favour. Villa’s last win against Liverpool was the 7-2 win behind closed doors five years ago and they haven’t won at Anfield since Gabriel Agbonlahor’s winning goal in 2014.
That’s why the Reds are odds-on winners according to the bookies and it’s difficult to argue against it.
Perhaps the biggest positive in Villa’s favour on Saturday is that we as supporters consistently underestimate Emery and his players.
I think this applies to fans of lots of clubs but doubt can outweigh hope even in the face of logic and data. A pre-match feeling of inferiority before certain games doesn’t always take into account the fact that Villa are quite good.
Emery won’t be looking at the recent records of these teams and envisaging anything other than their continuation. He will believe Villa are currently the better side and capable of demonstrating as much.
Thanks to his meticulous preparation and several years in charge of these players, they’ll see it that way too. They’re not uncomfortable underdogs and they know their jobs inside out.
Villa play the game as planned and tend not to be affected too much – with a few noteworthy exceptions, sadly – by occasions or environments, and that’ll be key if Villa are to get anything from the game on Saturday.
Villa will be without Youri Tielemans on Saturday but Emery told reporters on Friday that he is expected to return to training next week.
Andrés García remains unavailable for the foreseeable future but Emi Buendía, injured against Manchester City, could be back in contention as soon as Thursday.
Harvey Elliott is ineligible to play against his parent club. The Liverpool loanee was left out of the matchday squad for last weekend’s win against City.
My guess is that Emery will look to keep things tight without taking an outwardly defensive approach by picking a pair of out-of-possession workhorses in the three behind the striker.
My predicted eleven features Evann Guessand to offer defensive back-up for Matty Cash, the plan being to double up against Milos Kerkez and, with the support of a central midfielder, to keep a tucked-in attacking midfielder at bay.
As for the striker, some predicted line-ups this week have thrown Donyell Malen in place of Ollie Watkins because he didn’t score against Manchester City. Utterly bizarre. I suggest you avoid those websites like the plague.
Emery will quite rightly want John McGinn on the pitch as well as Boubacar Kamara and Amadou Onana, so he could opt to shift the Villa captain further left with a view to backing up Lucas Digne.
Villa’s home game against Manchester City will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 1 and Discovery+ in the UK.
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